Grant: Operating Grant

The Canadian population is aging as people live longer and baby boomers grow older. There is concern that the aging population will strain our health care system since health care use increases with age and at the end of life. One area of concern is the future need for long-term care (LTC) beds. In Ontario, if people used LTC beds at the current rate, a simple projection of our population growth would lead to an increase from 105,892 beds in 2012 to 221,328 beds in 2036. This projection, however, is too simple. We know, for example, that as people live longer, they also live a longer time in good health. A more detailed forecast is needed to accurately project future need for LTC beds. At a population level, however, we do not know what are the important factors that lead to need for a LTC bed. This study will follow a large group of Ontarians living in the community and study what factors lead to being admitted to a LTC home. We will also use routinely collected data in health care (i.e. hospitalizations, visits to doctor's offices, emergency room visits, etc.), to look at the health care events that lead to LTC entry. We hypothesize that we will be able to identify important factors that dramatically increase the chance of a LTC admission. Specifically, we will study: demographic factors (e.g., age, sex), disability factors (e.g., impaired in performing everyday tasks), support factors (e.g., living with someone), disease factors (e.g., having a chronic disease such as heart disease or cancer), health services factors (e.g., having a family doctor, receiving home care), health events (e.g., heart attacks or sudden infection), and behavioural factors (e.g., smoking, physical activity, diet). Our goal is to be able to anticipate future need for LTC beds. This will not only help resource planning, but will identify opportunities to reduce the need for long-term care in the population.