Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

This research program focuses on designing an improved hydrological prediction system for the Omineca region located in the north-central interior section of British Columbia. The goal is to utilize state-of-the-art modeling tools combined with advanced forecast initialization methods to develop an efficient ensemble hydrological prediction system for the river streamflow and water temperature. This will be achieved by five interconnected projects. The first project will focus on hydrological model implementation to quantify climate change impacts on the streamflow timing and magnitude in key watersheds of the Omineca region. The second project will generate reliable soil moisture and snow water equivalent datasets for these watersheds using satellite and station-based data and improved data assimilation methods. The soil moisture and snow water equivalent data will be subsequently used to initialize hydrological predictions in project three, focusing on developing a skillful streamflow prediction system on days-to-seasonal time scales. We will construct different sets of ensemble forecasts by using traditional and physically-based perturbation methods. These methods will be used to select optimized initial conditions for ensemble streamflow forecasts. We will systematically evaluate the performance of our streamflow forecast system using advanced statistical measures. Project four will focus on generating river water temperature forecasts by coupling the river water temperature scheme with an ensemble streamflow prediction system. The fifth and final project will utilize land-use changes in hydrological predictions for watersheds with significant land-use disturbance in the Omineca region. This will allow us to investigate and predict changes in streamflow and water temperature under logging, wildfires, and bark beetle infestations in these watersheds. The results of proposed research program will leverage current flood, forestry, and fisheries management practices in the Omineca region. This region is central to many communities living in Prince George, Fort St. James, Mackenzie, and Vanderhoof. The proposed modeling framework will provide new information on skillful hydrological forecasts that are crucial for public safety, infrastructure, and aquatic habitats in this region. Many watersheds in the Omineca region have experienced significant land-use disturbances, primarily due to wildfires and beetle infestations. The proposed research approach will advance our knowledge to quantify the impacts of these disturbances on regional water resources. In addition, the modeling framework and new methodologies proposed under the research program will be transferable to other similar watersheds in Canada. Furthermore, this research program will train the next generation of HQP with advanced computational and hydrological modeling skills to increase Canada's capacity in reliable streamflow forecasts and better management of its water resources.