Grant: Strategic Projects - Group

The general objective of this project is to develop a suite of forest dynamic models that will be used by natural resources managers to better understand (i) the different uncertainties associated with climate change and (ii) how current land-use practices can affect the diversity and functioning of the transitional forest between the temperate and boreal biomes. The current tools that are used to predict its impact on forest ecosystems are limited because they lack important ecological knowledge. On the one hand, foresters use growth and yield curves parameterized for different regions and climate to project future productivity. On the other hand, the predictions of future species distribution use the correlation between the current distribution and climate descriptors. These models are inappropriate for forest ecosystems because they do not consider how the complex interplay between dispersal, interspecific interactions and forest management will affect migration dynamics and productivity. This project is unique in linking the best forest ecologists and modelers from Canada and United States to assess the impact of and the risks associated with climate change on the productivity of the forests of eastern Canada. We will develop a modeling suite spanning different spatial and temporal scales, from local scales and short time horizons (10-25 years) to the large (regional) spatial scales and long time horizons (100-200 years). More specifically, the project includes the following major technical tasks: (1) Development of a theory of forest ecosystem dynamics under climate change and of its interplay with forest management; (2) Development of climate-driven neighborhood competition models and mapping of the short term impacts of climate change on forest productivity; (3) Development of the forest dynamics modeling suite and mapping of the long-term impacts of climate change on forest productivity; (4) Practical application of the modeling tools for the development of innovative management strategies proposition of different forest management guidelines. We will focus on forest Eastern Canada at the transition between temperate and boreal biomes since we expect the greatest impacts of climate change to occur in such forests.