Grant: Alliance Grants

The goals of the proposed project are to provide South West Terminal (SWT) with 1) projections of potential changes in agricultural production in southwestern Saskatchewan in response to climate change, and 2) an understanding of the projected regional climate changes and the use of climate data for risk analysis and resilience planning. The outcome will be new knowledge and data to inform the adaptation of practices and technologies to minimize potential climate risks and to take advantage of a warming climate. Saskatchewan has about 44% of Canada's crop land and is the world's largest exporter of seven cereal, pulse and oilseed crops. Despite a dry climate and short growing season, a commercially-successful agricultural industry has been established through considerable adaptation of farming practices and technologies. Climate change presents further challenges for prairie agriculture but also potential benefits. Future crop productivity will vary over space and time according to soil conditions and the amount and timing of changes in temperature and precipitation, and subject to other environmental and socio-economic factors. We propose to use geospatial (gridded) biophysical and agro-climatic data of high-resolution (10-25 km), and land suitability and crop modelling platforms, to identify and map the soil landscapes where a warmer climate is favourable for crop production and conversely where the land could become less productive. The proposed research will deliver projections of climate change, crop productivity and land suitability that have sufficient spatial extent and resolution to be applicable to strategic planning of a private agricultural business, South West Terminal.