Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

Hurricanes and winter storms represent the most significant natural hazards to Atlantic Canada and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region, being responsible for death, destruction, and widespread environmental disruption. For example, Hurricane Juan, which struck the coast of Nova Scotia in September 2003, resulted in eight fatalities, over $300 million in damage, and destroyed millions of trees. However, little is known about the factors that control these events over long timescales, nor how they will change in the coming decades. This proposal is focused on the field of paleotempestology-the study of past storm activity using geological methods. My main objective is to study variation in hurricanes and winter storms in Atlantic Canada and the Gulf of St. Lawrence prior to the instrumental record to better document and explain natural variability in these events, which will help us understand how they may change in response to ongoing global warming. For example, recent research suggests that intense hurricanes have migrated northward over the past 30 years, which would increase the vulnerability of Atlantic Canada to these events. One key goal of my research will be to examine how hurricanes and winter storms changed during past warm periods, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which occurred about 1000 years ago. If these events are found to have been more common at these times, it might shed light on how hurricanes and storms will change in the future. Until now, Atlantic Canada has been virtually ignored in terms of paleotempestological research. However, the development of data from this region will be critical to better understand hurricane and winter storm dynamics. With this in mind, my students and I will collect sediment cores in a network of lagoons, peat bogs, and lakes from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland and study the sediments for indicators-using techniques such as grain size and cutting-edge geochemical methods-of past storm strikes. This data will then be compared to similar records from the Caribbean, New England, and Europe, to test hypotheses concerning variability in these events. In addition, working with leading climatologists, we will use our data to evaluate climate models of hurricane activity to understand the key climatological factors that influence its behavior. Finally, we will also push the methodological boundaries of the discipline by exploring the use of other natural archives (e.g., lakes) to assess their potential for paleotempestological study, which will allow new, inland regions to be opened for future research. My results will have significant and widespread impacts; for example, hurricanes and storms have major effects on coastal environments, and my research will have implications for improved estimates of shoreline erosion. In addition, we will be able to derive improved estimates of hurricane risk and return-period, which will be important to the coastal planning and insurance communities.