Grant: Discovery Launch Supplement

Summary of Proposal By 2050, a changing climate, a projected global population of 10 billion, and a rising demand for water and food will significantly impact regional and global Water Security (WS) and Food Security (FS). The challenge is to meet these increasing demands, but understanding the complex relationship between WS and FS remains a major problem. However, leaving the connection between WS and FS unaddressed undermines livelihoods, leading to crop revenue loss, migrations, general instability, and conflicts. Assuming the political will exists to make WS and FS priorities, federal and provincial decision-makers in practice need accurate information about the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) nexus measures, grounded in evidence, broken down to pieces, and targeted to regional water and food insecurity causes and their symptoms, to shape the appropriate policy to remediate them. This research program carefully designed four components to enhance our understanding of the linkages among water and food sectors and their connection to geospatial, seasonal, and socio-economic variables. These include: 1- Monitoring Near-Real-Time agricultural drought and pluvial conditions at the surface and root zone using remote sensing satellite data. 2- Downscaling the drought monitor tool for smaller regions. 3- Coupling citizen science technology with the agricultural drought monitor. Use image processing (e.g., Google Earth Engine, Planet) and AI (e.g., Segment All Model) to identify food insecure households and their food insecurity levels variability over space and time. 4- Identifying a 3-month household FS index based on combined agricultural drought and socio-economic indicators. The drought monitoring tool will be built for Canada, and the household food security index will be developed for Prince Edward Island (PEI). However, the technology and lessons learned from creating such an interoperable system will be transferrable to similar activities elsewhere and would be crucial, especially during wide-scale emergencies. PEI is selected due to its small size and accessibility. Additionally, the increase in the frequency of droughts, the slowing in annual yield of major crops, increasing fertilizer use, the non-sustainable use of groundwater, and a household food insecurity rate of 14%, including 19% ( almost 1 in 5) of children, make this province an ideal location for developing and testing robust FEW nexus workflows. This program will create HQP opportunities by engaging a diverse body of students, postdocs, faculty members at UPEI and elsewhere, stakeholders, economists, the government of PEI, technical specialists, AAFC Living Laboratories, and donors on the many factors of the components to identify approach entry points for strengthening rural WS and FS. Furthermore, the project will release peer-reviewed articles in highly reputable journals and conferences and produce videos, blogs, and workshops for outreach and communication.