Grant: Strategic Projects - Group

Low-carbon transition is a complex and long-term process and involves many social, economic, environmental, technical and political factors. Complexities arise from multi-dimensionalities that exist in energy systems, including spatial and temporal variations of multiple energy-related activities and their interactions, as well as environmental and socio-economic implications. A low-carbon shift requires a complete analysis for every aspect of the transition pathways. There were many studies on energy systems management, however, past studies did not explore the inherent complexities of energy systems nor did they comprehensively consider the effects of multiple uncertainties and the associated risks. This led to difficulties in acquiring sound bases for formulating desired policies for energy systems management. This research will develop a multi-dimensional optimization and risk management system (MORMS) for supporting strategic decisions in the clean-energy transition. MORMS is the first system to integrate system optimization, risk management, and decision support system development within a general framework. This entails the development of a set of innovative methodologies for studying the following issues: characterization of energy systems, supply-demand analysis, integrated optimization, uncertainty analysis, vulnerability/risk assessment, policy analysis, and climate change adaptation planning. MORMS will be applied to cases of western Canada. For each case study, a thorough analysis of uncertain impact factors and their interactions will be undertaken, followed by further modeling studies to help identify desired clean-energy transition strategies. Results of this research will help governments and industries to formulate Canadian effective policies for energy and environmental management, and thus bring tremendous benefits to a number of communities.