Grant: Strategic Projects - Group

Unprecedented warming and human disturbance in the zone of discontinuous permafrost has led to substantial permafrost melt in recent years. This has the potential to greatly alter the nature of water cycling within, and the volume and timing of runoff from the wetland-dominated drainage basins that characterise much of the discontinuous permafrost zone in the Northwest Territories (NWT) and elsewhere. The uncertainty regarding the mechanisms and rates of permafrost melt, the impact of this melt on water drainage and storage patterns and processes, and appropriate mitigation strategies, underscores the need for sound scientific research to provide the knowledge base required for informed and sustainable management of this resource. In response to this need, this research project will develop a suite of models for predicting the response of discontinuous permafrost to climate warming and human disturbance from oil and gas exploration and the consequent change in landcover and river flow regime in the NWT. This will be achieved by meeting the following short-term objectives: 1) map the spatial distribution of permafrost and its change over the past 50 years using aerial photography and satellite images, 2) develop new conceptual and mathematical models of hydrological processes, 3) develop a new permafrost model including the effects of human-induced disturbances, and 4) couple the hydrological model with the permafrost model to predict the spatial distribution of permafrost and the river flow regime under possible scenarios of climate change and human-induced disturbances. Annual User Community Workshops in Yellowknife will focus on interactive training of the new science-based predictive tools needed to properly manage northern water resources in the wetland-dominated regions with melting, discontinuous permafrost. The project will also partner with federal and territorial agencies, NGOs, industry and local stake-holders for the purpose of developing the NWT Water Strategy, the NWT Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and other key federal-territorial joint initiatives concerning permafrost melt and water resources.