Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

This research will investigate statistical and mathematical models to develop insights into planning and management of waiting lists in general, and mental health care systems in particular. Common operational aspects of mental health services include: 1) a patient (customer) is "assigned" to a clinician (server) to receive treatment services during a random number of visits; 2) psychiatric patients have high no-show rates in their treatment sessions; and 3) psychiatric treatment plans are highly variable in terms of duration and the distribution of their outcomes. Informed by these common aspects, I will investigate methods to forecast demand and waiting time for mental health care services and to shed light on factors that drive exceptionally long waiting times for psychiatric patients. Using the mathematical models, the impacts of operational decisions, for example, capacity cap on the number of patients assigned to a clinicians, and aspects by which patients should be clustered to reduce the variability in waiting times, will be investigated. I will validate my mathematical models using empirical data. At an academic level, this research program will contribute to the fields of operations research, operations management in the health care and service sectors, and psychiatric care planning and management. It will address important issues regarding the modeling of queueing systems with returning heterogeneous customers that are assigned to heterogeneous servers to receive service during a random number of interactions. At a practical level, this research will aid decision makers in the field of mental health care with their planning methods. The need for improvements in management of waiting lists has become even more evident in the context of increased demand for psychiatric care during the current pandemic, due to high levels of stress in family and work settings and extended loneliness. These improvements will be essential for the post-Covid-19 era. Psychiatric patients in particular, and customers receiving service in general, in Canada and elsewhere, will benefit from planning that matches realities more effectively and efficiently.