Grant: Project Grant

Almost everyone will have an episode of acute low back pain (LBP) in their lifetime. Unfortunately, at least a quarter of them will experience symptoms consistent with chronic LBP, one of the main causes of life lived with disability. The ability to identify individuals who are at greater risk of chronic LBP might help us pinpoint the causes of chronicity and develop strategies to prevent it. Despite previous attempts to identify these individuals based on measures such as age, sex, mood, and social support network, we remain unable to do so with acceptable confidence. Because we know that LBP has an important genetic influence, in this study we will use the largest study currently available in the world that includes both LBP and genetic data (the United Kingdom Biobank) to estimate how the collection of a person's genetic variants affect their risk of having chronic LBP. To make sure these genetic variants are important, we will confirm our findings in a large independent Canadian study that also includes both LBP and genetic data (the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging). Previous studies done on other diseases also influenced by genetics - such as cardiovascular dis-eases, diabetes, and different types of cancer - taught us that using genetic variants to predict a health out-come is particularly useful when combining other measures. Thus, we will combine information provided by the genetic variants with age, sex, mood, and social support network and other measures that are being col-lected as part of the Quebec Back Pain Study (QBPS) - an ongoing effort launched and maintained by our team - to predict the transition to chronic LBP. As result of this study, we expect to enable the identification of individuals with acute LBP at greater risk of chronic LBP and in turn, to start to develop strategies to avoid it.