Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

Humans can engineer buildings and other infrastructure to withstand earthquake (seismic) shaking when we correctly predict the input ground shaking. The long-term vision of my research program is to improve earthquake ground motion prediction across Canada by reducing uncertainties related to local subsurface ground conditions (earthquake site effects). My research program to incorporate measured seismic site conditions across Canada to reduce uncertainties of predicted earthquake ground motion will be achieved by four main objectives: Objective 1, Multi-method seismic site characterization studies specific to Canadian geology: My students and I will measure seismic site properties using a variety of seismic field methods in southern Ontario and Alberta to generate seismic microzonation maps (SMM) of important seismic site effect measures. We will perform a passive seismic tomography experiment around Charlevoix, Quebec, to develop a regional three-dimensional (3D) velocity model. Objective 2, Evaluation of seismic site characterization techniques to establish reliable Canadian site effect predictors: My students and I will evaluate the measures and analysis techniques that quantify seismic site effects to establish reliable site effect predictors suitable to the great variety in Canadian site conditions. Objective 3, Perform wave propagation modelling to capture long-period ground motion uncertainties: My students and I will constrain the large uncertainties in predicting ground motions of complex large-magnitude earthquake ruptures and 3D site effects (basins, topography) for the two most applicable regions in Canada: southwest British Columbia and Charlevoix, Quebec. We will develop region-appropriate scenario large-magnitude earthquake source rupture models to initiate 3D wave propagation simulations within a 3D regional velocity model (see Objective 1) to predict 3D ground motions. Objective 4, Advance incorporation of site-specific seismic hazard into national seismic hazard & risk: My students and I will demonstrate approaches to integrating our regional mapping of earthquake site effects (Objectives 1 and 2) and site-specific ground motion predictions (Objectives 2 and 3) into the national seismic hazard model and/or seismic site designation procedure of the national building and bridge design codes. Inclusion of our site-specific seismic hazard estimates will help to stabilize (reduce uncertainties) of future national seismic design ground motions and seismic risk predictions. The novelty and significance of accurately predicting earthquake ground motion is important for life-safety (engineering design, risk asset management) and planning (land use, emergency response, business continuity, insurance rates) purposes. Hence, the proposed research is important to the scientific and earthquake engineering community, emergency management, and governmental planning.