Grant: Alliance Grants

Understanding patterns of genetic diversity and adaptive variation is crucial for predicting the potential response of tree populations to climate change. Studies predict that many boreal tree populations will experience decreased growth and survival under increasing global temperatures. However, the response is expected to vary among populations and species based on differences in ecophysiological tolerances and adaptive capacity. Here, we propose to examine genetic variation among black spruce populations from contrasting environments across the species' natural range. We will obtain information on genome-wide genetic variation and phenotypic traits, including growth, survival, growth initiation and cessation dates, and cold and drought tolerance. This information will be used to identify climate variables most strongly associated with variation among populations, map spatial patterns of adaptive variation, and construct models that allow us to predict the risk of maladaptation under climate change. This information will be used by project partners, including the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (OMNRF), to develop species-specific seed transfer guidelines to maintain black spruce health and productivity under climate change. Since black spruce is the most important commercial forest species with the largest scale of annual forest renewal in Ontario, this research will substantially impact the health, resilience, and productivity of Ontario's crown forests, which in turn significantly affect the forest sector economy. Likewise, because black spruce has transcontinental distribution and is a significant forest species across Canada, the impacts of this research will expand well beyond the border of Ontario and potentially to other transcontinental boreal species.