Grant: Collaborative Research and Development Grants

We propose to develop and apply a modelling system for studies of the meteorological and environmental changes that would be expected to occur locally and regionally as a consequence of degraded air quality from increased anthropogenic pollution in the future. The studies will use both present-day meteorology and boundary conditions that simulate approximately the future meteorological conditions predicted by the modelling studies in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC4). (We will not, however, try to downscale or reproduce these studies exactly.) Selection of future emissions will be guided by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We will use the WRF/Chem regional chemical transport model (CTM) as the basic tool for these studies. This model is ideal for studies of this kind because it is an ""online"" chemistry/meteorology model in which the chemistry and meteorology are evaluated simultaneously and feedback between the two is possible. In the first part of the project, we will make some necessary additions to WRF/Chem, including implementing an emissions processing system and elaborating the aerosol-cloud interactions, based on the extensive work that already has been done on this aspect in the community. All modifications will be tested by comparison with existing modelling and field studies (and using current emission). In the second part of the project, we will develop and run scenarios designed to explore the changes in meteorology (especially precipitation) in Eastern North America that would result from changes in anthropogenic emissions that are expected to occur in the future. The major focus of the scenarios will be exploring the effects of anthropogenic pollution on local and regional precipitation patterns and the consequences of this for recharge capacity in river systems that are important for hydro electric power generation in Ontario. This information is valuable to our partner, Ontario Power Generation, in particular, but also to the hydroelectric power generation industry as a whole. The studies will also explore the interactions of specific pollutants with meteorology.