Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
University of Western Ontario
$35,000.00
Applied probability models in health, risk, queues and forestry
FY 2011-12
Summary
Our work this summer (still in progress) on Bilingual Call Centres has focused on bilingual call centre models that allocate bilingual agents on the basis of the difference in queue lengths. Upon completion of this step, we intend to study trilingual call centres to gain insight into good strategies for the optimal allocation of inflexible (unilingual) and partially-flexible (bilingual) agents, before using those who are trilingual. We then hope to apply insights gained from this aspect to allocation procedures for multilingual call centres.
Turning to organ transplant waitlists, demand for organs from patients who could benefit exceeds the stable supply in almost all jurisdictions. For kidneys and livers, living-donor transplants are an option that is receiving increased attention to fill in the gap. Our work in this field has developed forecasts for the number of deceased donor organs vs. living donor organs required to achieve stability of the liver transplant queues in Canada. Future work will include a detailed simulation of waitlist operations, to more fully understand the impact of blood type, health level, time on list and other factors on time to transplantation. A theoretical priority queue model will be developed, to reflect increased urgency as a patient's health level decreases over time.
Future work in the area of risk theory will pursue two fronts: applying fluid flow techniques to as yet unresolved aspects of perturbed risk processes such as the surplus prior to ruin, and initiating investigations of Gerber-Shiu functions for perturbed risk processes and those with a multi-layered structure. In Forestry, working with partners in provincial fire authorities (Ontario MNR) and national fire specialists (Canadian Forestry Service), we will study the fire spotting phenomenon, using infrared cameras, expert opinion elicitation, and other techniques.
Program
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Recipient
Location
Ontario, Canada
Recipient Type
Academia
Type
Grant
Source
NSERC's Awards Data
As published
Application id
41187-2009
Name nom
Stanford, David
Department département
Statistical and Actuarial Sciences
Organization id
36
Institution établissement
University of Western Ontario
Province en
Ontario
Province fr
Ontario
Country en
CANADA
Country fr
CANADA
Fiscal year exercice financier
2011
Competition year année de concours
2009
Award amount
35000
Program id
RGPIN
Program nane en
Discovery Grants Program - Individual
Program name fr
Programme de subventions à la découverte - individuelles
Group en
Discovery grants programs
Group fr
Programmes de subventions à la découverte
Committee code
20
Committee name en
Industrial Engineering
Committee name fr
Génie industriel
Area of application code
802
Area of application group en
Information and communication services
Area of application group fr
Services d'information et de télécommunications
Area of application en
Information systems and technology
Area of application fr
Systèmes d'information et technologie de l'information
Research subject code
1601
Research subject group en
Industrial engineering
Research subject group fr
Génie industriel
Research subject en
Operations research and management science
Research subject fr
Recherche opérationnelle et science de la gestion
Partie
3
Nb partie
5
Application title
Applied probability models in health, risk, queues and forestry
Keyword
NSERC
Application summary
Our work this summer (still in progress) on Bilingual Call Centres has focused on bilingual call centre models that allocate bilingual agents on the basis of the difference in queue lengths. Upon completion of this step, we intend to study trilingual call centres to gain insight into good strategies for the optimal allocation of inflexible (unilingual) and partially-flexible (bilingual) agents, before using those who are trilingual. We then hope to apply insights gained from this aspect to allocation procedures for multilingual call centres.
Turning to organ transplant waitlists, demand for organs from patients who could benefit exceeds the stable supply in almost all jurisdictions. For kidneys and livers, living-donor transplants are an option that is receiving increased attention to fill in the gap. Our work in this field has developed forecasts for the number of deceased donor organs vs. living donor organs required to achieve stability of the liver transplant queues in Canada. Future work will include a detailed simulation of waitlist operations, to more fully understand the impact of blood type, health level, time on list and other factors on time to transplantation. A theoretical priority queue model will be developed, to reflect increased urgency as a patient's health level decreases over time.
Future work in the area of risk theory will pursue two fronts: applying fluid flow techniques to as yet unresolved aspects of perturbed risk processes such as the surplus prior to ruin, and initiating investigations of Gerber-Shiu functions for perturbed risk processes and those with a multi-layered structure. In Forestry, working with partners in provincial fire authorities (Ontario MNR) and national fire specialists (Canadian Forestry Service), we will study the fire spotting phenomenon, using infrared cameras, expert opinion elicitation, and other techniques.