Grant: Advancing Climate Change Science in Canada

In the Anthropocene, human-driven changes to carbon cycles alter global and local climates and hence all aspects of economy and human life. The subarctic is 1/6 of the Canadian land mass but a poorly studied area where human habitation is sparse and rates of resource extraction are increasing. The central and western subarctic is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects (temperature and precipitation) due to extensive permafrost, large stores of carbon, and low annual precipitation. Carbon fluxes to the atmosphere from surface water bodies as greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) is a balance between carbon sources from terrestrial systems including wetlands and lake/pond margins and carbon stored in sediments. This loss from surface water bodies is large and complicates our ability to quantify the effect of climate change and human activities on this large region. This proposal examines the landscape-scale carbon balance in three areas along a transect from south to north covering conditions of continuous, widespread discontinuous, and sporadic discontinuous permafrost. We use a combination of hydroclimatic information, chemical analysis, highly specialized isotopic techniques, remote sensing, and numerical modelling to improve our quantitative understanding and forecasting of carbon dynamics, greenhouse gas production, carbon stores and the critical carbon balance between long-term storage in sediments (carbon sequestration) and release to the atmosphere (increasing greenhouse gases). We have formed a strong research team including Canadian and international research scientists from universities, territorial and federal governments, students, and Indigenous communities. Research outcomes will inform science-based management and policy decisions and delivery of climate change actions for Canada's north and Canada's obligations for international reporting on greenhouse gas emissions.