Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

The thematic focus of the proposal is climate and ocean dynamics at high northern latitudes, including the Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the North Atlantic Ocean, in a global change perspective that includes short- to long term trends, variability, extreme events and a marine environment that is being used more and more commercially. The Arctic and subarctic regions are expected to experience particularly large amplitude changes in response to global warming due to feedback processes often referred to as polar amplification. These regions are already characterized by an acceleration of climatic and environmental change. Loss of sea ice and melting of continental ice caps are dramatic and the rate of change unprecedented. Moreover, the excess meltwater routed towards the North Atlantic and Labrador Sea may interfere with the formation of deep ocean water, thus affecting the global ocean circulation as well as the take-up of climatically active gases such as CO2, feeding back on the overall climate system. Furthermore, the accelerated loss of the glacial ice mass in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming may lead to a significant increase in global sea level. The feedback processes that link the Arctic ice, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the ocean and atmosphere remain incompletely documented from observations and are imperfectly quantified as state-of-the-art climate models still fail to reproduce observed instrumental trends of Arctic ice decline. Moreover, high latitude climate change may not be linear and the system might reach thresholds beyond which small change in any forcing can result in amplified response. On a regional level, these changes affect local weather and marine ecosystems (including through changes in ocean acidification), with direct bearing on the livelihood of Northern and east coast communities. In this context forecasting the evolution of the Arctic-subarctic system is an important challenge. Thus this proposal will aim to use historical data analysis and high to very high resolution numerical modelling to examine past changes in the ocean and sea-ice in regions such as the CAA, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, examining key underlying physical and dynamical processes associated with these changes. The long term goal of this proposal will be to work towards understanding how the waters and sea-ice around Canada will evolve in the future (in the context of present and past behavior), and to provide that information to the many stakeholders concerned with such information. Modelling will be carried out using a coupled ocean/sea ice model that also includes modules for the tides, icebergs, and biogeochemistry. This modelling will be carried out in such a way to allow direct collaboration with other groups in Canada (especially within the federal government), as well as internationally.