Grant: Strategic Projects Supplemental Competition

Energy and environmental modeling can shed light on important technological and economic issues related to greenhouse gases abatement strategy in Canada. We have on one hand a Canadian optimization model representing detailed production, distribution and final consumption technologies of the complete energy and industrial Canadian system, that was developed a few years ago and that needs to be updated and upgraded. On the other hand, we have a powerful optimization shell and toolkit, namely TIMES, which is operated with user-friendly interfaces to produce useful results to decision-makers. Previous researches on a World TIMES model of 15 regions, including Canada as a separate region, allow us to analyse Canadian position into greenhouse gases world negotiations. This project focuses on transferring, updating and upgrading former Canadian database to build a TIMES-Canada model and to use it for Canadian policies. We have five objectives. (1) Transfer, improve and calibrate the existing model to year 2005 and extend the modeling horizon to 2100. (2) Adapt and update the database for the Canadian context regarding renewable electricity technologies, hydrogen, carbon capture and sequestration. Integrate clean coal technologies. Improve oil sands, liquefied natural gas, biofuels, advanced nuclear, and energy trade. (3) Calibrate and implement two contrasted economic scenarios to the International Energy Agency statistics and balance for Canada. (4) Analyse climate policies (energy intensity or emission reduction) to be implemented either by Canadian provinces or by economic sectors; impacts and secondary benefits; impacts of a carbon permit market; Canadian reduction targets in international system. (5) Analyse technological issues raised by Canadian and provincial energypolicies and perform sensitivity analyses on technological inputs to TIMES Canada. Simulate social choices oncontroversial matters.