Grant: Project Grant

This research project aims to develop a new approach to forecast the future burden of chronic diseases on provincial healthcare systems in Canada. Accurate long-term projections are desperately needed to plan and allocate resources effectively to ensure our healthcare system can address the expected burden of chronic diseases and mitigate disparities. The project intends to utilize comprehensive population health data, epidemiological modelling, and demographic projections to estimate the prevalence of major illnesses, life expectancy, and years lived with major illness over the next 20 years. The objectives of the project include developing a forecasting model for chronic conditions, analyzing how health projections vary across social and demographic groups, and creating a decision-making tool to inform healthcare capacity planning. The approach involves leveraging linked health administrative data, validated algorithms, and survey data to assess chronic diseases and behavioural risk factors. Expert consultation and collaboration with health system leaders and a patient advisory group in two provinces will ensure the credibility and relevance of the findings to health system planning. The research findings will provide valuable insights for healthcare planning and policy-making, enabling informed recommendations for current and future healthcare needs, community-based care, and prevention efforts to address the growing burden of chronic diseases.