Grant: Strategic Projects Supplemental Competition

Ecologists and natural resources managers often focus on patterns not processes, short duration time scales, and isolated commodities or species. A failure to address interacting ecological processes at meaningful scales limits our ability to develop predictions of future environmental change. This lack of understanding of long-term ecosystem dynamics is especially relevant to Canada's north where ecosystems are under pressure from a range of human developments and the potential effects of climate change may be extreme. Such negative interactions might be a factor in the current decline of the country's central Arctic barren-ground caribou. Most herds have declined by more than 50% and management agencies and communities are struggling for understanding and solutions. Predictive climate models forecast a substantial change in the weather of the northern boreal forest and the arctic tundra regions of Canada. Changes in temperature and precipitation could alter snow conditions decreasing the nutrient returns when foraging for terrestrial lichens, the primary forage species for Rangifer during winter. Warmer weather in association with climate change also has the potential to alter fire regimes across the winter range of caribou. An increase in fire could reduce the total abundance and distribution of terrestrial lichen. Our Strategic Project Grant will integrate field-based research on fire dynamics, caribou ecology, and human use patterns of caribou within a forecasting model designed to understand the long-term implications of climate change for the distribution of barren-ground caribou on the Bathurst herd's winter range. Objectives of this work have short-term (i.e., current decline) and long-term (i.e., strategic fire management, land use planning, community health) objectives with relevance to territorial, federal, and First Nations policy makers and planners. At a broader scale, innovation from this work will advance and integrate the science of animal, plant and natural disturbance ecology with community food systems and ecosystem modelling.