Grant: Canada Research Chairs

Canada has a high likelihood of facing significant earthquake risks in the future. Active crustal and subduction earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest are major threats to residents in British Columbia, whereas the Saint Lawrence seismic zone can host infrequent, major earthquakes in Quebec and Ontario. 40% of Canadians live within the active seismic regions, thus the impact of catastrophic earthquakes would be significant socioeconomically and financially. Scientific challenges in assessing the potential risks for residents and assets include characterization of earthquake rupture of future major events and modeling multi-hazard cascades, such as mainshock ground shaking followed by tsunami, aftershocks, and landslides, which will affect the population and built environment simultaneously. Dr. Goda’s Canada Research Chair program will tackle the global challenge of developing an integrated multi-hazard framework through the disaster cycle approach of mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery, and sets out three objectives: 1. Advancing single- and multi-hazard methods for earthquakes and secondary perils, including aftershocks, tsunamis, and ground failures 2. Developing a new multi-hazard risk assessment method for communities under concurrent and cascading hazards and its applications in Canada and global regions 3. Improving disaster response and recovery capabilities against multi-hazard processes The new assessment tools will improve current practices of preparing shaking and tsunami hazard maps, which are developed separately and are based on different methods, data, assumptions, and scenarios. They will also be used to design new early warning-rapid risk forecasting systems and financial risk transfer instruments to enhance the seismic preparedness and resilience of households, municipalities, and insurers. Engaging with research users and stakeholders (e.g., academic communities, insurance/reinsurance industry, and disaster risk reduction officers in governments and international aid organizations) is critically important to facilitate effective technology transfer. The outcomes of Dr. Goda’s program will be materialized as a set of novel computational tools and unique data for assessing the risks due to multiple earthquake-triggered hazards, along with a set of effective guidelines for insurers and reinsurers regarding the effective diversification of earthquake risks from multi-hazard perspectives.