Grant: Alliance Grants

A lesson from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is that regional differences can determine the best public health responses. There is a need for theoretical frameworks that can determine which public health strategies are best in which regions, and also to resolve the generality of the lessons from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to new emerging diseases (e.g., mpox, H5N1 avian influenza), re-emerging diseases (e.g., polio, measles), seasonal pathogens (influenza and RSV), the ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants, and the interventions applicable to these infections. The proposed research is to develop a mathematical modelling framework for risk potentials of emerging, re-emerging, and seasonal infectious diseases. We will also develop a model-fitting and simulation framework for the evaluation of management alternatives for yet to establish infectious diseases. This project will contribute to the training of the next generation of infectious disease modellers. The proposed research extends mathematical modelling approaches that have been develop by Principal Investigator, Dr. A. Hurford which: are priorities for the Public Health Agency of Canada-L'Agence de la Santé Publique du Canada (PHAC-ASPC); further modelling approaches that are needed to support policy guidelines; and will develop connections to terminology and theories from the literature on zoonotic infections and biological invasions.