Grant: Project Grant

Climate change and evolving land use patterns are allowing blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis), the main vectors for Lyme disease (LD), to expand into areas previously considered low risk. In Ontario, Ottawa and Kingston face particular challenges: Kingston has long had a high rate of LD, whereas Ottawa is experiencing more recent increases in cases. To better understand and manage these changing risks, this project will develop PICASO (Platform for Integrating Computation, Analysis, and Simulation for Ontario), a comprehensive modeling tool that brings together multiple data sources from tick surveillance and land cover maps to demographic information and climate projections. By integrating these data, PICASO will reveal how variations in temperature, forest cover, and urban expansion influence both tick activity and the chances of human exposure in Ottawa and Kingston. Our team will calibrate the model to current conditions using existing records of tick distributions and reported LD cases. We will then perform scenario analyses to project how LD risk might evolve over the coming years, taking into account potential changes in climate and population growth. In addition, PICASO will simulate the impact of different public health strategies, such as targeted tick control efforts in high-risk neighborhoods or broader education campaigns to increase prevention. The aim is to generate user-friendly outputs, such as interactive maps and visual summaries-that can inform policymakers, public health authorities, and community leaders. By identifying where and when Lyme disease risk is greatest, and by assessing how cost-effective various interventions might be, PICASO will help decision-makers prioritize resources in each city. Ultimately, this framework will serve as a model that can be adapted to other Canadian regions facing similar climate-driven challenges in preventing Lyme disease and other vector-borne illnesses.