Grant: Strategic Projects Supplemental Competition

In a bold move to encourage green-energy development, BC Hydro (a Crown corporation) has been directed by the government to purchase power from approved private wind-energy companies. Because wind power is unreliable and cannot be stored, BC Hydro must optimally compensate its dominant hydroelectric production to accommodate the intermittent wind-power. Given the diverse stakeholders involved, this optimization is extremely difficult in the face of uncertain weather forecasts. Our research will provide improved rain forecasts for hydroelectric reservoir watersheds, and improved wind forecasts at wind-turbine farms, so that BC Hydro engineers can better optimize their production. We will use multiple weather-forecast computer codes to predict the chance of different weather outcomes. Such probabilistic forecasts allow safer and more economical power production. In particular, we will work to improve the probabilistic forecasts by: (1) participating in a field program to better measure the weather that approaches Canada from over the Pacific; (2) calibrating the computerizedweather forecasts to give accurate probability information; and (3) developing a new way to remove forecast errors from computerized forecasts. We will then use these improved forecasts to provide BC Hydro with daily wind and precipitation forecasts for each hydroelectric and wind-energy facility. As data from these forecasts accumulate, we will calculate average time differences and weather intensities between the different power sites. Using these statistical averages, we will do economic analyses for the complex network of hydro- and wind-energy sites, to allow BC Hydro engineers to optimize power production.