Grant: Project Grant

Heart attack and stroke are the second leading cause of death in Canada. In fact, every five minutes, one person in Canada dies from a heart attack or stroke even though many cases are preventable by using medications to control blood pressure or cholesterol. Primary care doctors determine when to start these medications by first predicting the chances their patient will develop a heart attack or stroke in the next 10 years. When the chances are high, medications are started. Currently, it's recommended that doctors use complex equations to make these predictions, but in most cases, this is not done because two major issues exist. First, the equations are not accurate in Canadians. They were created for use in other countries and are not reflective of the Canadian population. Unfortunately, no satisfactory alternatives exist. Second, the equations are time consuming and cumbersome to use. This is because they require information from many sources such as the physical exam, health history, medication history, and lab tests, that then need to be inputted into calculators. As a result, many patients may not have their risk estimated which leads to missed opportunities to start preventative medications. In this proposal, we will address these issues by developing for the first time, equations to predict heart attack and stroke for Canadians using data from Ontario, Alberta, and Quebec. Our equations will be unique, as they will only rely on an individual's age, sex, as well as their lab tests that are routinely being checked at annual health physicals. This simplified model can then be used automatically by lab vendors to report the future chances of heart or stroke directly on lab reports. This exciting new advance will allow physicians to immediately use this accurate, reliable, and readily available risk without any disruption to their workflow so they can focus their time on discussing the benefits of starting medications with their patients.