Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

The objectives of my research program are 1) to contribute to an improved understanding of fire activity under climate change and fire suppression, 2) to contribute to improved decision-making for sustainable development in forest management. Climate Change and Area Burned by Forest Fires In previous research I discovered that fire growth models predict fire growth during intense growth periods, or 'spread events', accurately, and developed a model for spread events. I will develop a model for fire extinguishment and incorporate my models into fire growth modeling. This will improve the accuracy and scope of our fire growth modeling. I will also develop a simulation model to predict area burned on the national scale. Sustainable Forest Management under Climate Change I propose to study forest management under a changing climate. I propose to link these ideas of forest management under uncertainty and valuation of forest resources to recent work on forest management for carbon sequestration. I will begin with an optimal rotation problem under risk of fire, in which the forest manager has the option of hedging against fire risk by purchasing carbon credits on a CO2 market. I will also develop a simulation model of Toronto's urban forest to help urban forest managers decide how to modify their planting program for a changing climate. This aspect of my research program will inform Canada's efforts to manage its forests under climate change.