Grant: Strategic Projects - Group

The objective of this research is to predict potential effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of a large range of plant and animal species from Quebec. The project will support regional strategies of adaptation to climate change in the field of biodiversity conservation. We will use the best available data and the most advanced statistical techniques to develop quantitative models representing the complex relationships between species distributions and environmental variables, including climate. We will work in three steps.(1) we will evaluate how phenology (the timing of biological events) and species distributions have beenaffected by recent climate change.(2) we will construct ecological niche models for a wide array of plant and animal species including trees,other vascular plants, amphibians, reptiles, and birds. These models will be based on the climate and land coverthat presently define the distribution of species, and will use high resolution scenarios of regional climatechange to project (2050 and 2100) future species-by-species distribution changes.(3) based on the output from the first and second steps, we will zoom in on the species and regions withinQuebec that are expected to be most heavily impacted by climate change, to develop regional strategies ofbiodiversity conservation that incorporate potential climatic threats.This research is done in close collaboration with the consortium Ouranos, Parks Canada Agency, Canadian Wildlife Service (Environment Canada), ministere du Developpement durable, de rEnvironnement et des Pares du Quebec, Ducks Unlimited Canada, and Nature Conservancy Canada.