Grant: Strategic Projects - Group

Canada lynx are important predators in the boreal forests of North America, but loss of habitat apparently is the primary factor contributing to recent population decline and range constriction. Changes in lynx populations also may be compounded by dampened numerical fluctuations in the core range, or competition (with coyotes and bobcats) and hybridization (with bobcats) in the range periphery. It follows that effective tools for predicting lynx numbers are needed to ensure long-term rangewide viability of this species. In cooperation with fur auction houses, we will collect samples from harvested lynx to assess population genetic structuring and to identify dispersal corridors linking core to peripheral populations. Genetic samples from harvested bobcats will characterize the extent and distribution of hybridization, and lead to spatially-explicit models predicting loss of genetic integrity in southern lynx. In cooperation with provincial and state governments, we will calculate synchrony metrics from lynx fur harvest statistics to determine if patterns of population cyclicity in the core range are increasingly dampened and thereby contributing fewer dispersing lynx to peripheral areas. Assessment of cyclicity in fur harvest statistics for coyotes and bobcats will test the hypothesis of exploitative competition with lynx through joint reliance on snowshoe hares, whereas cross-correlation analysis will assess lynx population demographic responses to competitors. We will also use fur samples to reconstruct lynx and competitor diet via stable isotope analysis to further evaluate the exploitative competition hypothesis, as well as to test the prediction that lynx dispersal from the core to periphery is driven proximally by food limitation. Ultimately, the above efforts will culminate in predictive models of rangewide population change and harvest for lynx. Thus, this project will lead to a comprehensive understanding of factors currently limiting lynx populations and those potentially affecting future sustainable harvest and long-term viability. Finally, the project will foster cooperation with fur auction houses and government agencies towards helping establish a long-term sampling regime for lynx and perhaps other furbearers.