Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

The long-term goal of my program is to document and ultimately forecast the consequences of both genetic and phenotypic trait changes on population dynamics in general, and particularly in species exploited by humans. To do so, my group and I seek to understand how intraspecific genetic and phenotypic diversity shape ecological and evolutionary processes in wild populations. Several studies have documented phenotypic response to current unprecedentedly fast rates of anthropogenic environmental changes. Phenotypic differences between individuals can affect their fitness and mean vital rates and it has recently been shown that changes in trait distribution can affect population growth rate. Although population dynamics have interested demographers and ecologists for at least two centuries, very few quantitative empirical examples illustrating the importance of genetically-based phenotypic effects on population growth are available. We thus know little about the relative contribution of ecological and evolutionary processes (i.e., change in mean population phenotype over time) to population dynamics, despite their fundamental importance for conservation, natural resource management and evolutionary demography. Over the next five years, my students and I will expand our work to three interconnected shorter-term objectives: I) Document how current spatio-temporal variation in ecological factors that affects trait evolution and population dynamics; II) Evaluate how past selection influences future evolutionary potential; III) Develop and apply eco-evolutionary models to forecast the effect of plastic and evolutionary trait changes on population dynamics. To achieve these objectives, my research team will exploit exceptionally detailed data from long-term longitudinal studies (9-200 years) of vertebrates (brown bears, bighorn sheep, tree swallows, humans). My program will provide major advances to forecast the consequences of both genetic and phenotypic trait changes on population dynamics. Through these advances, I will prepare numerous highly qualified personnel for relevant positions in biological conservation, resource management, and academia.*****