Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

The overall aim of my research program is to conduct research that helps society better manage water resources and prepare for impacts on the water cycle driven by climate change. I use field observations and computer models to improve our fundamental understanding of how subsurface hydrological processes work in cold regions. Cold regions are challenging to monitor and key processes are still inadequately understood and difficult to simulate numerically. I take on problems that are both challenging to scientists and important to society. The question I have chosen to focus on for the next five years is: how do we improve the models we use to simulate infiltration and runoff from snowmelt in the Canadian prairies? Agriculture in the prairies is crucial to the Canadian economy but is highly vulnerable to floods and droughts. In the last two decades, the area has experienced climate change related record setting floods and droughts, with billion dollar losses. The worst flood on record in the prairies was in 2011, and was caused by snowmelt over saturated frozen soils. My past research has led me to the conclusion that our lack of understanding of infiltration processes in unsaturated, frozen soils, remains a critical gap in our understanding of prairie hydrology, and equally importantly, is resulting in high costs and uncertainty for society. Infiltration determines subsequent growing season soil moisture and groundwater recharge, and low amounts of infiltration can result in drought conditions. Runoff determines the input of water to wetlands and streams, and large amounts of runoff can result in floods. We know that we have problems in our understanding because the computer models that we use to predict runoff and infiltration volumes typically fail to reproduce observed conditions. In this proposal, I lay out my ideas for how we can improve these models, and what field and laboratory observations we can make to both test our models, and provide us with new insights into how the system works. I will hire and train world class graduate students to work with me on this problem. We will share our findings in peer reviewed literature, and we will develop tools that can be used by researchers and consultants to make better flood risk assessments.