Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

Nature-based carbon storage promises to be a key contributor to achieving climate mitigation targets, as a complement to broader societal decarbonization efforts. Natural carbon sequestration is also increasingly evoked as a strategy to balance or offset fossil fuel emissions in the context of national and sub-national net zero targets. Natural systems have considerable potential to sequester additional carbon, but carbon stored in many natural reservoirs is vulnerable to loss due to either natural disturbances such as wildfire or changes in human land-use decisions. The potential impermanence of nature-based carbon sequestration is a key challenge to the implementation of nature-based climate solutions. My proposed research program will advance our understanding of how nature-based climate solutions can be effectively and appropriately applied towards reaching national and subnational climate targets. I will focus on land-based carbon sequestration efforts which carry a high likelihood of impermanence. Together with members of my research group, we will investigate and quantify the disturbance risk associated with human activities and wildfire, both of which can cause stored carbon to be lost back to the atmosphere. This will improve our ability to model the net climate value of temporary carbon storage, considering disturbance timescales, as well as the non-carbon effects that are associated with land cover changes. We will further assess the implications of nature-based carbon storage potential for global, national and sub-national climate targets by quantifying potential effects on the remaining carbon budget, as well as evaluating the implementation of nature-based strategies among national and sub-national climate targets. Building on insights from this work we will develop new metrics and methods to quantify and track the evolving character of carbon storage in nature, and assess how these insights could be implemented within corporate carbon accounting practices and carbon offset markets. The coming decade will mark a crucial period for global climate mitigation efforts. International, national and local actors are increasingly seeking effective climate solutions, and it is essential that these efforts be informed by clear and sound scientific understanding of what will or will not be effective. My proposed research program is targeted to contribute to a key challenge in the current climate mitigation landscape - that of how to incorporate nature-based carbon removal and storage given understanding of both carbon storage potential and impermanence risks. Meeting the world's climate goals will require the successful implementation of a wide range of solutions, and my aim is to help ensure that nature-based climate solutions are applied alongside other efforts in a manner that respects their limitations, and also maximizes their potential.