Grant: Discovery Grants Program - Individual

The central aim of my research program is to quantify and explain the connections between recent fluctuations and the dynamics and mass balance of glaciers, ice caps, icebergs, ice shelves and sea ice in northern Canada. Over the past two decades there has been a dramatic shift and advance in our knowledge of the links between climate change and the response of ice masses, particularly at high latitudes. The most recent IPCC (2021) climate assessment report predicts sea level rise of 0.44-0.76 m by 2100 under an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, a marked upward revision from earlier predictions primarily due to increases in the rate of glacier mass loss. However, little is currently known about the relative importance of surface mass balance vs. ice dynamics in driving glacier mass losses in northern Canada, and whether there is the potential for destabilization of large outlet glaciers, as has been observed in Greenland. This motivates my research, as systematic measurement and monitoring of glaciers and ice caps across northern Canada is needed to properly understand the causes and impacts of temporal changes in ice motion, and their connection to mass balance, surface melt and iceberg production. My research program will address two main areas over the next 5 years: 1.Glacier and ice cap dynamics: a key gap in our knowledge of Canadian glaciers and ice caps is the temporal variability in their surface velocity, which limits our ability to determine their fluxes, the controls on ice motion, and how these may evolve in a warming climate. Future work will focus on how the motion of these glaciers varies on decadal timescales and their connections to surface mass balance, supraglacial hydrology, ice-ocean (or ice-lake) interactions, bed topography, and the role of glacier surging or other internal dynamic instabilities vs. climate forcing in driving these changes. Measurements will be based on a combination of remote sensing, airborne and field observations, including the operation of timelapse cameras, weather stations, and multi-frequency GNSS monitoring equipment on glaciers across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and SW Yukon. 2.Connections between glacier, iceberg and sea ice losses: over the next 5 years I will build on my existing work to monitor the patterns and causes of glacier retreat across northern Canada, track changes in the supraglacial and ice-marginal hydrology of ice masses, monitor surface mass balance, elucidate the factors that control iceberg production at the fronts of tidewater glaciers, and continue the tracking of icebergs across Baffin Bay and beyond. The iceberg production and drift information will tie in to existing work on Arctic shipping patterns and risks, including the factors that control shipping activity in the Canadian Arctic and how this may evolve in a regime of decreasing sea ice.