Grant: Project Grant

New drugs are often tested in many clinical trials- often involving several different diseases (we call this collection of clinical trials "trial portfolios"). This vigorous research activity can generate a wealth of information that can be used to inform policy decisions as well as patient protections in trials. At the same time, it can also produce exaggerated estimates of a drug's efficacy- especially when portfolios contain a large number of trials. In this grant, we will examine the extent to which large trial portfolios produce overly optimistic estimates of a drug's efficacy, focusing on cancer drugs. We will also examine the extent to which exaggerated treatment effects lead to erroneous recommendations in clinical practice guidelines. Finally, we will explore how knowledge of trial portfolios can be harnessed to make better decisions about drug approval, and to better protect patients in trials.