Grant: Project Grant

Vaccines have helped protect Canadians from serious infectious diseases for decades. But fewer children are getting vaccinated now, which makes outbreaks more likely. In fact, there are two major measles outbreaks happening right now in Ontario and Alberta, and Canada may lose its official status of having eliminated measles, a designation we've held since 1998. This project uses computer models to estimate what could happen in Canada if vaccination rates continue to fall. We're focusing on four diseases: measles, polio, pertussis (whooping cough), and varicella (chickenpox). These are important because they spread easily, can cause serious illness, and are fully preventable. Chickenpox is also interesting because what happens to chickenpox rates in kids affects shingles risk (and shingles vaccination costs and benefits) in older adults. We have done similar work before, focussing on the city of Toronto. But this is a national challenge now, and that makes us motivated to scale this project up. We'll use data on vaccination, population, and outbreaks to estimate how many people could get sick, and how serious the impacts would be, if fewer people are vaccinated. We'll also look at which age groups and provinces might be most at risk. The results will help public health leaders make better plans to keep Canadians safe and healthy.