Grant: Catalyst Grant: Pandemic Preparedness

Given the threat of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and considering the high degree of morbidity and mortality of previous pandemics, research into identifying effective disease control measures is an unavoidable priority. In light of this, the specific objectives of this proposal are: (i) Evaluate the impact of public health mitigation strategies on the spread of pandemic influenza in Canada; and (ii) Develop a predictive framework for subsequent evolution of the virus during a pandemic, which can be used to assess the likely outcomes of public health interventions. These objectives will be achieved through a reliable, efficient, and adaptable computational system that will be thoroughly evaluated by our stakeholder advisory group from Canadian healthcare departments and agencies involved in pandemic preparedness. Prior to the emergence of a novel pandemic strain, it is not possible to study the epidemiologic impact of disease or interventions in a real world environment. Our methodology will provide a valuable framework for synthesizing available biological and epidemiological data. By translating virological and clinical data into epidemiologically meaningful parameters, disparate pieces of information can be transformed into a framework that optimizes health policy decisions. The incorporation of population heterogeneity into a contact network model can permit the development of more nuanced, targeted, or geographically specific control strategies. Economic parameters can also be incorporated into network models, allowing estimation of cost-effectiveness and optimization of resource allocation in the face of competing health and distribution priorities. Finally, this framework is useful for the exploration of uncertainties and to (i) construct "best and worst case" projections, (ii) identify important areas for future research, and (iii) estimate the economic attractiveness of such research.